Most fantasy football busts are the
result of too much hype.
In preseason drafts, owners often
put too much stock in the potential of a player, rather than what the
player has done in the past.
Take a look at the bottom teams in
your league. The odds are those owners have a bunch of players that were
hyped in the preseason and haven’t lived up to expectations. Owners who
drafted mostly players with a long history of success with their current
team probably are near the top of your league.
Let’s take a look a few different
rules to spot busts. Keep in mind there’s always exceptions to these
rules, but oftentimes, players who end up being busts fall under one of
these rules.
ONE-HIT WONDER
Players often get over-hyped after
they had just one good season. Once a player has a great season, the
next year opponents will be more aware of that player and often find
ways to stop that player. Or a player could have a breakout season
because his team has an unusually easy schedule.
This is the most difficult rule to
predict, however, because owners shouldn’t ignore players who have
breakout years, because he could turn out to be the next Peyton Manning
or LaDainian Tomlinson, but they should take caution with these players.
Examples:
Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco; Vince Young, QB, Tennessee; Philip
Rivers, QB, San Diego.
Exceptions to the rule:
Tony Romo, QB, Dallas; Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis; Maurice
Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville; Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans.
UNPROVEN
Players who are a starter for the
first time, are expected to see more playing time or are with new teams
often end up being busts. This season is a great example, as many have
fallen under this rule. Until a player has proven that he can thrive in
his current role, owners should be careful not to draft too many of
these players.
Examples:
Cedric Benson, RB, Chicago; Travis Henry, RB, Denver;
Laurence Maroney, RB, New England; Darrell Jackson, WR, San Francisco;
Mark Clayton, WR, Baltimore; Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego; Randy
McMichael, TE, St. Louis.
Exception to the rule:
Wes Welker, WR, New England; Willis McGahee, RB,
Baltimore; Brandon Jacobs, RB, N.Y. Giants; Addai.
ROOKIES
First-round running backs are the
only rookies that can be counted on to have solid first years.
Second-round running backs, quarterbacks and wide receivers are a
different story.
Just three rookie receivers –
Colston in 2006, Michael Clayton in 2004 and Randy Moss in 1998 – have
reached the 1,000-yard mark since 1997.
Only three of 26 second-round rookie
running backs – Clinton Portis in 2002, Anthony Thomas in 2001 and Corey
Dillon in 1997 – have gained 1,000 yards since 1997. Although it should
be noted that Jones-Drew had 1,377 total yards and 941 rushing yards
last season.
Manning is the only rookie
quarterback since 1997 to throw for 3,000 yards.
Examples:
Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit; Brandon Jackson, RB, Green Bay; Chris
Henry, RB, Tennessee.
Exception to the rule:
Dwyane Bowe, WR, Kansas City.
TOO MANY MILES
Although this rule doesn’t apply to
players being overhyped like the above rules, it often holds true. When
a running back hits 30 years old, there’s a decent chance his production
will take a major hit – especially if he’s been a featured back for many
years – because the beating that they take at the position eventually
catches up with them.
Examples:
Shaun Alexander, Seattle; Ahman Green, Houston.
Exceptions to the rule:
None.
Next week, we’ll take a look at how
to spot potential breakout players.
HOT READ
Ricky Williams, RB, Miami:
Williams returns to the NFL after serving an 18-month suspension for
substance abuse. With the Dolphins winless, there’s no reason to think
that Williams won’t see significant playing time. Miami will want to see
how good Williams is to determine if they want to keep him or to raise
his trade value.
BROKEN PLAY(ER)
Donald Driver, WR, Green Bay:
With the Packers now having numerous weapons for quarterback Brett Favre
to throw to, Driver’s numbers have taken a hit, especially his
touchdowns. Driver was Green Bay’s only receiving threat in recent
years. This season, however, Favre also has receivers Greg Jennings and
James Jones and tight end Donald Lee as solid options. After recording
1,245 yards and eight touchdowns last season, Driver is on pace for
1,096 yards and three TDs going into Thursday’s game.
OFF THE BENCH
Chris Henry, WR, Cincinnati:
Forget the fact that he’s the Bengals’ “No. 3
receiver.” He had as many pass targets as Chad Johnson last week (11)
and has 12 catches for 181 yards and one touchdown in his two games
since returning from his suspension. He should continue his solid play
this week at home against Tennessee.
SAFE BET
Brandon Jacobs, RB, N.Y. Giants:
Jacobs left last week’s game late in the third quarter with a hamstring
injury. This is the second time he’s been hurt this season, his first as
the Giants’ featured running back. Expect Jacobs to be a consistent
injury-prone player, with his upright, bruising running style.
EXTRA POINT
This is the first of five straight
weeks with Thursday games. Make sure you get your players that are
playing that day set in your starting lineup or bench. Also, check your
league lineup rules to see if you have to set your entire lineup before
the Thursday games or just the players who are playing that day.
