Don’t Be So Defensive 

Valuing defensive units in the dark is very difficult—and the dark is pretty much any time between January and mid-September.  Lemme ‘splain. 

In August of ’06, many of us had Carolina dialed into the Superbowl, based in large part upon how good their defense was certain to be.  Everything was shaping up for them:  their offense was going to get early leads with Steve Smith and then grind out the clock with DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams, and they had the scheduling benefit of playing offensive ne’er-do-wells such as the Falcons, Buccaneers and the lowly, laughable Saints twice each.  We were all eating Carolina BBQ and drinking Panther Kool-Aid. 

Defenses can put up monster points in many fantasy leagues, so thousands of owners blew a 5^th-, 6^th-,  7^th-, or 8^th-round pick on the Panthers last season.  Then, unaccountably, the Falcons dropped the Panthers like a bad habit, 20 to 6, in Week 1.  The infinitely less valuable Atlanta defense dialed up 22 fantasy points—using a fairly common scoring system—versus six from Carolina.  From there, things didn’t get much better for the Panthers’ D, finishing 26^th among fantasy defenses. 

Staying in the NFC South, what about those Falcons last year?  Other than leagues based near Fulton County, no one much cared for them until the first few weeks of ’06.  Quite surprisingly, after Week 4 of last year the Falcons were ranked third in fantasy terms (behind Chicago and Baltimore) averaging 20 points.  The reader can imagine how many owners puffed up their chests with waiver-wire pride when landing this ostensible diamond in the rough. 

But those chests certainly deflated in the following weeks.  The Falcons D used their final 12 contests to average an anemic 8.5 points, ranking 31^st out of 32 teams in terms of fantasy productivity. 

It’s all well and good to justify using a mid-round pick on a defense because it’s a “sure thing,” but the defenses that finish the 2007 season on top will only be “sure things” in the estimate of those who have no memory for statistical trends.  Since 2004, only three teams (Chicago, Baltimore and Pittsburgh) have maintained top-ten status, while a good many of the others that briefly joined them in that spot-light quickly move from great to awful to mediocre (e.g., the Bills were first in ’04, twenty-fourth in ’05, and thirteenth in ’06). 

Valuing fantasy defensive units is much more difficult than valuing individual players.  At the end of the day, an owner only has to answer three questions concerning individual offensive players:  1) What is the value of such-and-such player in a vacuum? 2) What is the situation that such-and-such player is now in? and 3) How will such-and-such player fit into that situation? 

To be very clear, none of those questions are easy to answer, but most owners believe they can make a good guess.   

Using similar logic, it is impossible to value defensive units: 1) What are the values of these-15-or-so individual players in a vacuum? 2) What is the value of these-15-or-so players as a unit in a vacuum? 3) What is the real situation of that team’s offense? 4) What are the real situations of the opponents on that team’s schedule in relation to: a) defensive vs. offensive match-ups; and b) offensive vs. defensive match-ups? 5) What can I realistically predict about special teams apart from the fact that Dante Hall was sure to score a return TD every week I didn’t start the Chief defense that year? 6) Do you want to pay for the undercoating on your new car? and 7) Is Pardon the Interruption more acceptable now simply because it’s been forced on us for three interminable years? 

Owners usually shy away from that continued logic, and, instead, consult magazines and websites for help in the world of defenses.  (Those magazines and websites, by the way, don’t know much more about what to expect than the readers—but don’t tell our editor we said that.) 

Who really predicted that the Saints would have the best offense in the league last year?  Preseason defensive rankings of teams playing New Orleans in ’06 were artificially and incorrectly buoyed by the very logical but absolutely wrong assessment that the Saints would suck.  And every year, we see one or two such shocker teams. 

Who really predicted that Bob Sanders would have such an incredible impact on the Colts’ rush-defense last year?  Over 90% of those readers claiming credit for that insight are lying (but please, keep reading).  Sanders was important, and many understood that, no question.  But the Colts went from one of the very worst at stopping the run to one of the very best as soon as he was reinserted into the line-up. 

And a few years back when Baltimore lost Ray Lewis and Ed Reed simultaneously for multiple weeks, the results were also surprising.  If Bob Sanders’ absence could incapacitate the Indy defense, then the absence of two defensive superstars would have to cripple the Ravens, right?  So why weren’t they crippled? 

Defenses are like crazy chemistry experiments.  The vast majority of particulars that shape, mold and craft these collective cultures (experiments) are not perceptible due to the limited knowledge that we are afforded in the preseason, or even in the first weeks of the season.  Between free-agency, players coming on and off the injured-reserve list, coaching changes, and fresh meat from the draft, there are a number of different chemicals added to all teams before and during a season—some inert, and some catalytic. 

A helpful strategy for many owners begins with recognizing these challenges.   

Don’t spend valuable mid- or even late-mid-round draft picks on defenses.   If it is a crapshoot, then just take your chances later, and focus your efforts where you have a better chance of using insight and experience.  This “don’t worry about defenses” strategy can help you better manage your time in preparing for the draft by selecting players in situations that you have an infinitely better chance of really understanding.   

Think about what we “really knew” last year by the end of October:  The Saints were much better than we expected; the Atlanta thrashing of Carolina wasn’t so surprising after all; and neither the Falcon nor Panther defenses were very impressive.  We knew plenty of other things outside of the NFC South as well.

Most waiver wire activity is allowed through the second month of the regular season. 

It is not a bad tactic to simply wait and see how things develop, then pick up two or three defenses focusing on two things:  1) how these defenses are “really” reacting within their situations; and 2) what are the “real” situations for the teams on their schedules for the remainder of the year.   

Keep in mind, there will always be more supply for defenses than demand (there are between 26 and 32 starting defenses each and every week).  While Chicago and Baltimore won’t be available, there are a slew of teams like the Texans, Titans, Redskins Bills and Lions that are available.  I’ll predict right now that one of those teams will be in the top 10 at the end of this season.  I don’t know which one, but by November, I’ll have a much better idea.  And by then I’ll also have a much better idea what their schedule “really” looks like.   

This strategy is very practical and intuitive.  Even if you don’t have a top-10 defense, you can still play two or three defenses off of each other, based strictly on match-ups as the season closes.   

In this system there is less time required to prepare for a draft, less “cost” afforded to that one defense selected in the final rounds, no quantum physics or consulting psychics to solve issues that are really unsolvable, and the ability to seek out defenses in a non-partisan way by watching games with which you might otherwise be bored. 

This is just one more of our efforts to give you, the reader, more time to enjoy a cool refreshing beverage while kicking the crap out of your friendly foes in fantasy football.