I can see you doubting my conclusion
already. You are thinking about Priest Holmes being a top RB in
2003 and the success that Larry Johnson enjoyed as his
replacement in 2004. You are extrapolating from that one phenomenal
transition that other equally phenomenal transitions are the norm rather
than the exception, but a closer look at recent history should disabuse
you of that notion. Try to focus less on an awe-inspiring Johnson as a
backup to an awe-inspiring Holmes in 2004 and more about unheralded
Mewelde Moore as a backup to the less-than-stellar Chester Taylor
for a 3-week period in 2004 or journeyman Sammy Morris filling in
for a barely adequate Ronnie Brown for 3 weeks at the end of the
2006 season.
We know now who the top 7 running
backs in 2006 were: LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson,
Larry Johnson, Brian Westbrook, Frank Gore, Tiki
Barber, and Willie Parker. Baber has retired, but the other
6 are still active and highly valued. If and when these guys go down in
2007 (Jackson is already out for 2-3 weeks), their replacements are sure
to be pounced upon in leagues all over the world. But if we look back
at how such a strategy would have panned out in years past, then we can
see that relying on Tomlinsons and Alexanders to go down so that the
Michael Turners and Maurice Morrises of the world can thrive is no way
to ensure success in playing the backup RB market.
2001-2002
In 2001, the top seven fantasy RBs
were: Marshall Faulk, Holmes, Ahman Green, Alexander,
Curtis Martin, Corey Dillon, and Ricky Williams. In
2002, Faulk missed two games, and Lamar Gordon filled in
admirably, scoring 20 and 13 fantasy points (using a fairly common
scoring system). Holmes also missed 2 games, but the productivity of
his replacements (Mike Cloud, Derrick Blaylock, and
Omar Easy) is hardly worth mentioning. Green also missed 2 games in
’02. In Week 3, Najeh Davenport supported the Packers with 13
points, while Tony Fisher offered 19 points in Week 14.
Alexander, Martin, Dillon, and Williams started all 16 games.
Lesson:
Of 102 possible starts in 2002 for the 7 best RBs in 2001, there were 96
starts. That’s a 94% start rate—probably a good deal higher than most
people would have estimated. Green’s missed starts weren’t even in
back-to-back contests, and his primary backup in Week 3 wasn’t the same
as his primary backup in Week 14. If you focused only on backups to
star RBs in 2002, you limited yourself severely.
2002-2003
In 2002, the top seven RBs were:
Holmes, Williams, LaDainian Tomlinson, Charlie Garner,
Clinton Portis, Dillon, and Deuce McAllister. Holmes,
Williams and Tomlinson started all 16 games in ’03. Garner was phased
out of the offense, albeit slowly. While Tyrone Wheatley
performed “ok,” Garner only missed two starts in ’03, and Wheatley
scored 18 and 4. Portis missed three games in ’03, and Mike Anderson
and Quentin Griffin filled in with mediocre numbers. McAllister
missed just one start and was spelled by James Fenderson to the
tune of 9 points. Dillon, on the other hand, began losing starts—due to
a not-so-critical injury—to Rudi Johnson. Johnson started five
games that season and scored 15, 21, 34, 21 and 35. Dillon was promptly
sent packing to New England.
Lesson:
Those who grabbed Rudi Johnson in 2003 should be delighted that they
did, but it would be difficult for them to argue that they knew
that he would end up wresting the job from Dillon. For a few years,
everyone was certain that LaMont Jordan would win the starting
job with the Jets from Curtis Martin. Jordan didn’t become a
legit starter until he moved to Oakland. One has to consider the talent
of the backup in the complicated context of the team he plays for, the
talent of the other backups, and the injury status of the starter.
Those who grabbed the backups for Williams, Tomlinson, and Holmes in
2003 spent the whole season waiting to use them.
2003-2004
In 2003, the top seven RBs were:
Tomlinson, Holmes, Green, Jamal Lewis, Portis, McAllister, and
Alexander. In ’03 Tomlinson failed to start in only one game, and that
was when he was rested in Week 17, and the Chargers tested out
Michael Turner and Andrew Pinnock for the playoffs, with no
notable production. Holmes started the first eight games, and we all
know what happened next: Johnson laid a definite claim to that starting
spot. Green missed one start, which opened the door for Davenport to
score a whopping 31 points. Lewis missed four games, and Chester
Taylor filled in impressively with 11, 8, 10 and 24 point
performances. Portis was also benched in Week 17, and Ladell Betts
filled in nicely with 19 points. McAllister missed two starts, and
Aaron Stecker filled in nicely with 26 and 9 points. Alexander
didn’t miss a start.
Lesson:
The Larry Johnson of 2004 isn’t really relevant to a discussion of
running backs one can realistically expect to pick up on waivers due to
injury in 2006. He was so highly touted in the fantasy community (and
there were so many doubts about Holmes’ health going into the season)
that he was drafted relatively high. Focus on the other backups, since
they have analogues in the 2006 season. Notice that Tomlinson’s blue
chip backup (Turner) was less valuable than the blue collar backups on
other teams (Davenport, Taylor, Stecker, and Betts).
2004-2005
In 2004, the top seven RBs were:
Barber, Alexander, Tomlinson, Martin, Edgerrin James, Domanick
Davis, and Dillon. Barber, Alexander and Tomlinson started all 16
games in ’05. After struggling the first 12 games of the season, Martin
yielded his starting job to Cedric Houston, who scored a
respectable 12, 11, 3 and 11 points to close out the season. James was
benched—along with everyone else of importance on the Colts—in Week
17…nothing to note. Davis missed five starts. Jonathan Wells
started four of those weeks, offering a very impressive 17, 15, 20 and
14 points, while Vernand Morency filled in the fifth week with 19
points.
Lesson:
Davis was a talented back whose career was brutally cut short by injury,
but even his fans would have a difficult time putting him in the same
category as Martin. Their injuries in 2005 clearly illustrate the
wrongheadedness of concluding that the backup to a superstar is more
desirable than the backup to a lesser back, as the best performances by
Martin’s backup (Houston) were all inferior to the worst performances by
Davis’ backups (Wells and Morency).
2005-2006
In 2005, the top seven RBs were:
Alexander, Larry Johnson, Barber, Tomlinson, James, Portis, and Jordan.
Alexander missed six games in the middle of ’06, and his replacement,
Morris, scored 5, 6, 7, 3, 16 and 15. Johnson, Barber, Tomlinson and
James started all 16 games. Portis missed half the season, and Betts
offered 12, 5, 14, 26, 22, 20, 27 and 20 as a starter. Jordan missed
seven starts, and Justin Fargas offered 7, 6, 11, 5, 7, 10 and 10
points.
Lesson:
The Alexander-Morris shift in Seattle was not at all akin to the
Holmes-Johnson shift in KC two years earlier. We won’t know how a
Tomlinson-Turner shift will work out until Tomlinson gets hurt for an
extended period, but those who think that it is the “norm” for star
running backs to be capably replaced by their backups are perhaps
deluding themselves.
The upshot of all this is not that
you should disregard injuries to stars such as Westbrook, Jackson, and
Rudi Johnson. Of course you should pay attention to such injuries. But
you will do well to pay even closer attention to injuries to the likes
of Brandon Jacobs and Cadillac
Williams.
