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2005 Preseason Fearless Forecast

By Michael Mai
September 1, 2005
 
Recently, a group of 13 knowledgeable football experts, including four from here at FantasyFootballExperts.com, took part in the “2005 Fearless Forecast.” The group was asked to predict the order of finish for each NFL Division and answer 12 additional questions regarding the 2005 season. As an added twist, we also polled a small group of everyday fans and fantasy football players to see how they stack up against the experts. In all, there were 16 participants in the survey. There were some tight races and surprise opinions, but the majority of the group had similar views on what or who will be the best and worst of the NFL in 2005.

The list of polled experts is comprised of: Mike Davis, Brad Haines, and Rich Harris of FantasyFootballExperts.com, T.C. Cannon of YouthFantasyFootball.com, Greg Kellogg and Hadar Susskind of GridironGrumblings.com, Marc Lawrence of www.Playbook.com, Matt Pitzer of USA Today Sports Weekly, Brian Schneider of FantasyOnlineSports.com, Herija Green of KFFL.com, Brian Murphy of FFToolbox.com, Kyle “Smitty” Smith of FantasyFootballXtreme.com, and me, Michael Mai, a writer for FantasyFootballExperts.com.

The Standings 

AFC East

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

New England

1

12

3

NY Jets

2 (WC)

4

5

Buffalo

3

0

3

Miami

4

0

0

AFC North

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Baltimore

1

9

2

Pittsburgh

2 (WC)

4

4

Cincinnati

3

3

3

Cleveland

4

0

0

AFC South

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Indianapolis

1

16

0

Jacksonville

2

0

1

Houston

3

0

0

Tennessee

4

0

0

AFC West

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Kansas City

1

7

5

San Diego

2

3

3

Denver

3

5

1

Oakland

4

1

2

NFC East

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Philadelphia

1

16

0

Dallas

2

0

1

NY Giants

3

0

2

Washington

4

0

1

NFC North

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Minnesota

1

14

0

Detroit

2 (WC)

1

6

Green Bay

3

1

3

Chicago

4

0

0

NFC South

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Carolina

1

15

1

Atlanta

2 (WC)

1

10

New Orleans

3

0

3

Tampa Bay

4

0

0

NFC West

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Seattle

1

12

1

St. Louis

2

3

2

Arizona

3

1

2

San Francisco

4

0

0

Survey Answers and Comments

1

Who will win the AFC Championship?

Indianapolis – With the Patriots presumed to have taken a step back this offseason, the Colts (eight votes) were the decisive favorite to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XL (note: the Colts were the choice in 2004, as well). The Colts doubled the vote total of the Patriots (four) because, according to Murphy, “With the coordinators gone in New England, I think Peyton and company will get home-field advantage and beat the Pats in the dome.” The Jets (two) were the only other team to receive more than one vote. The Raiders and Chiefs each received one tally. Susskind believes that the “Chiefs will have a healthy Priest Holmes and a just-good-enough defense” to come out of the AFC.

2

Who will win the NFC Championship?

Carolina – The now-healthy Panthers (seven votes) were somewhat of a surprise pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, especially over the perennial contending Eagles (four). I, for one, chose Carolina because the defense has the potential to be stifling, John Fox is one of the best coaching minds in the game, and QB Jake Delhomme continues to improve. Susskind likes the big-play potential of RB Deshaun Foster and WR Steve Smith. Minnesota (three) was a somewhat popular choice even with the loss of WR Randy Moss. The other two votes went to the New York Giants (one) and Atlanta Falcons (one). Schneider believes the Falcons have a good shot “if Vick stays healthy and the D lives up to expectations.”

3

Who will win the Super Bowl?

Indianapolis – In the end, it was the Colts (six votes) over the Panthers (three) in Super Bowl XL. Green thinks that QB Peyton Manning will “add a Super Bowl MVP to his trophy case.” Murphy, meanwhile, likes the improved Colts’ defense “led by Dwight Freeney, to get through the playoffs and to the Lombardi trophy.” I picked the Panthers to win it all because, in big games, even in domes, defense wins championships. The Patriots (two) and Eagles (two) were not picked by many to reach the Super Bowl again this season, though Harris believes “if TO plays all year, (the Eagles) should finally win the big one.” Oakland (one), Minnesota (one) and the NY Giants (one) took in the remaining votes.

4

What team do you expect to surprise the most (in a positive way)? 

Cincinnati In a very close vote, the Bengals (three votes) edged Oakland, Washington, Houston, the New York Giants, and Arizona (two apiece). Susskind thinks the Bengals are ready to “step up and become a contender” this season. I like Houston to open some eyes, especially with four winnable games against division rivals Jacksonville and Tennessee. Haines thinks the Cardinals will make a run at the playoffs thanks to their weak division and offseason improvements. Schneider thinks Oakland will be above .500 and win a lot of high-scoring games. He also believes, as many do, that “they will be fun to watch.” One of the polled fans thinks that QB Eli Manning will improve enough to shock the football world and lead the Giants to the Super Bowl. New Orleans and Detroit each received one vote, with Harris thinking that the Lions’ defense is “very underrated.”

5

What team do you think will be the most disappointing?

Pittsburgh and Oakland (tie) – The team everyone picked to be the biggest positive surprise one year ago received the most votes to be the biggest disappointment this season. The Steelers (three votes) tied the Raiders (three votes) for the team most likely to fall short of expectations this season. Susskind thinks that the Steelers will have trouble with “age, injury, and attrition,” while Harris is quick to point out that “(WR Randy) Moss doesn’t play on defense” for the Raiders. Baltimore (two) and San Diego (two) finished a close second here. Cannon was in agreement with one of our polled fans in thinking the Ravens will not be nearly as good as some predict. Haines and Schneider think the Chargers will fall hard due to the AFC West being a very strong division. Others receiving votes: New England (one), Buffalo (one), Jacksonville (one), NY Jets (one), New Orleans (one), and Philadelphia (one).

6

Which team will have the most potent offense (yards and points)?

Indianapolis – The Colts’ 2004-2005 record-breaking offensive performance has everyone jumping on the bandwagon this season. Manning and friends received 11 votes, crushing the closest competition, Oakland (three). Green thinks the Colts “may be even better this year.” I am just overwhelmed by their slew of weapons. Harris simply comments: “Who else?” when asked this question. Murphy was one of the Raider backers. He made his decision because, “Collins has a strong arm. Lamont Jordan is a fantastic running back for Norv Turner’s system. The offensive line is big, and with Moss, Porter, and Curry on the outside…yeah, that’s pretty good. Also, the Raiders’ defense is so deplorable, this offense will be attacking all season long.” The other two votes were given to St. Louis (by Cannon) and Minnesota (by Haines). Haines thinks, “(QB Daunte) Culpepper will prove that Randy Moss was not the key to this team’s offense.”

7

Which team will have the most dominating defense (yards, points, sacks, takeaways)?

Baltimore – Last season, the Ravens’ defense was the only landslide winner in this survey. This season, a year in which they added CB Samari Rolle and will play the vaunted 46 defense, they are still the top choice…only not by a landslide. The Ravens received 12 out of the 16 votes. Murphy calls them “suffocating.” Kellogg likes them to be led by his pick for defensive MVP, safety Will Demps. I think the duo of Rolle and McAllister makes them impossible to throw on. Haines calls the Ravens “loaded at every position.” Buffalo (two) was the only other team to get more than one vote, while Carolina and New England received one apiece.

8

Who will be the offensive MVP?

Peyton Manning – Coming off his 49-touchdown season, Manning (eight votes) was the consensus pick for offensive MVP. Few reasons were given for this selection, as the experts and fans apparently are choosing to let the numbers speak for themselves. RBs LaDainian Tomlinson (two) and Shaun Alexander (two) tied for a distant second. Murphy thinks Tomlinson’s goal of 2,000 yards is within reach, while Haines calls Alexander a “workhorse back.” Others receiving votes: Priest Holmes (one), Randy Moss (one), Daunte Culpepper (one), and Donovan McNabb (one).

9

Who will be the defensive MVP?

Julius Peppers – When I cast my vote for Peppers, I thought I would be in a very small minority. I was clearly wrong. Peppers received seven votes for defensive MVP. Murphy calls Peppers “a freak, athletically.” Pitzer, Harris, Susskind, and two of the three polled fans agree. Ravens’ LB Ray Lewis (three) was next in the voting. Lawrence likes him to lead Baltimore’s solid defense. Last year’s defensive MVP, Ravens’ S Ed Reed (two votes), described by Haines as a “playmaker,” came next. Kellogg’s vote went to Demps (one). Smith selected rookie DeMarcus Ware (one) as the MVP, but not Rookie of the Year. Davis likes Jets’ LB, and last season’s Rookie of the Year, Jonathan Vilma (one), and Green thinks Colts’ DE Dwight Freeney (one) will get “a ton of sacks.”

10

Who will be the Rookie of the Year?      

Carnell “Cadillac”Williams – In yet another close vote, Williams (five votes) edged fellow RBs Ronnie Brown (three) and J.J. Arrington (three). Two of our polled fans think Williams will be a Top 10 back by the end of the season. Smith, Pitzer and Schneider also like the way “Cadillac” moves. I voted for Brown because he will be relied upon heavily in Miami. Murphy chose Brown, as well, thinking Brown “will be the best player from the 2005 NFL Draft” due to his ability to “run in and out…catch and block.” Davis, Haines, and Green jumped on Arrington, with Green commenting that “Arizona’s offense may surprise some people this year.” The only other player to garner more than one vote was Kansas City LB Derrick Johnson (two), whom Harris calls “the next Derrick Thomas.” Others receiving votes: DeMarcus Ware (one), Antrel Rolle (one), and Carlos Rogers (one).

11

Which player will be the biggest surprise (in a positive way)?

Carson Palmer – Palmer (five votes) was the favorite to have a breakout season. Green believes Palmer is “poised to break out at the helm of a potentially explosive offense.” Murphy sees Palmer as “a Top Five or Six NFL quarterback by the end of the season.” Giants’ QB Eli Manning (three) was the only other player to receive more than one vote. Haines thinks Carolina WR Steve Smith (one) will “help lead his team to the NFC title.” I felt the same way about Jets’ QB Chad Pennington (one). Davis likes Houston CB Dunta Robinson (one) to lead an improved Texans’ defense into playoff contention. Harris chose Pittsburgh’s default starting RB Willie Parker (one) to “come out of nowhere to lead the Steelers in rushing.” Others receiving votes: Charles Rogers (one), Kerry Collins (one), Julius Jones (one), and Rod Gardner (one).

12

Which player will be the biggest disappointment?

Ricky Williams, Mushin Muhammad, Drew Brees (tie) – This vote was spread out among 13 players. Williams, Muhammad, and Brees (two votes each) were the only players to receive more than one vote. Lawrence and one of our fans think Williams will continue to disappoint his team and his fans. Murphy thinks Muhammad “has no incentive or talent around him to succeed.” Green concurs, saying about Muhammad: “No QB, no chance.” Both Schneider and I believe that Brees has little to no chance to duplicate last season’s performance. Harris chose Oakland QB Kerry Collins (one), saying: “You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink.” That is a very apropos statement considering Collins’ checkered past with alcohol. Haines split his vote between Green Bay QB Brett Favre (0.5 votes) and Oakland WR Randy Moss (0.5 votes). Of Favre, Haines says that Brett “declines quickly” and that “age catches up.” For Moss, he claims “Kerry (Collins) is no (Daunte) Culpepper.” Others receiving votes: Chad Pennington (one), Ben Roethlisberger (one), Priest Holmes (one), LaDainian Tomlinson (one), Duce Staley (one), Terrell Owens (one), Donovan McNabb (one), and Fred Taylor (one).

 

 

 

 


 

 
  
 

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