|
| |

| |
2005 Preseason Fearless Forecast
|
| By Michael Mai |
|
September 1, 2005 |
| |
|
Recently, a group of 13 knowledgeable football experts,
including four from here at FantasyFootballExperts.com, took part in the
“2005 Fearless Forecast.” The group was asked to predict the order of
finish for each NFL Division and answer 12 additional questions
regarding the 2005 season. As an added twist, we also polled a small
group of everyday fans and fantasy football players to see how they
stack up against the experts. In all, there were 16 participants in the
survey. There were some tight races and surprise opinions, but the
majority of the group had similar views on what or who will be the best
and worst of the NFL in 2005.
The
list of polled experts is comprised of:
Mike
Davis,
Brad Haines,
and
Rich Harris
of FantasyFootballExperts.com,
T.C.
Cannon
of
YouthFantasyFootball.com,
Greg
Kellogg
and
Hadar Susskind
of
GridironGrumblings.com,
Marc
Lawrence
of
www.Playbook.com,
Matt
Pitzer
of
USA Today Sports Weekly,
Brian
Schneider
of
FantasyOnlineSports.com,
Herija
Green
of
KFFL.com,
Brian
Murphy
of FFToolbox.com,
Kyle
“Smitty” Smith
of
FantasyFootballXtreme.com, and me,
Michael
Mai,
a writer for FantasyFootballExperts.com.
The Standings
|
AFC East |
Predicted Finish |
First-place Votes |
Wildcard Votes |
|
New England |
1 |
12 |
3 |
|
NY Jets |
2 (WC) |
4 |
5 |
|
Buffalo |
3 |
0 |
3 |
|
Miami |
4 |
0 |
0 |
|
AFC North |
Predicted Finish |
First-place Votes |
Wildcard Votes |
|
Baltimore |
1 |
9 |
2 |
|
Pittsburgh |
2 (WC) |
4 |
4 |
|
Cincinnati |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
Cleveland |
4 |
0 |
0 |
|
AFC South |
Predicted Finish |
First-place Votes |
Wildcard Votes |
|
Indianapolis |
1 |
16 |
0 |
|
Jacksonville |
2 |
0 |
1 |
|
Houston |
3 |
0 |
0 |
|
Tennessee |
4 |
0 |
0 |
|
AFC West |
Predicted Finish |
First-place Votes |
Wildcard Votes |
|
Kansas City |
1 |
7 |
5 |
|
San Diego |
2 |
3 |
3 |
|
Denver |
3 |
5 |
1 |
|
Oakland |
4 |
1 |
2 |
|
NFC East |
Predicted Finish |
First-place Votes |
Wildcard Votes |
|
Philadelphia |
1 |
16 |
0 |
|
Dallas |
2 |
0 |
1 |
|
NY Giants |
3 |
0 |
2 |
|
Washington |
4 |
0 |
1 |
|
NFC North |
Predicted Finish |
First-place Votes |
Wildcard Votes |
|
Minnesota |
1 |
14 |
0 |
|
Detroit |
2 (WC) |
1 |
6 |
|
Green Bay |
3 |
1 |
3 |
|
Chicago |
4 |
0 |
0 |
|
NFC South |
Predicted Finish |
First-place Votes |
Wildcard Votes |
|
Carolina |
1 |
15 |
1 |
|
Atlanta |
2 (WC) |
1 |
10 |
|
New Orleans |
3 |
0 |
3 |
|
Tampa Bay |
4 |
0 |
0 |
|
NFC West |
Predicted Finish |
First-place Votes |
Wildcard Votes |
|
Seattle |
1 |
12 |
1 |
|
St. Louis |
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
Arizona |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
San Francisco |
4 |
0 |
0 |
Survey Answers and
Comments
|
1 |
Who will win the AFC Championship? |
Indianapolis
– With the Patriots presumed to have taken a step back this
offseason, the Colts (eight votes) were the decisive favorite to
represent the AFC in Super Bowl XL (note: the Colts were the choice
in 2004, as well). The Colts doubled the vote total of the Patriots
(four) because, according to Murphy, “With the coordinators gone in
New England, I think Peyton and company will get home-field
advantage and beat the Pats in the dome.” The Jets (two) were the
only other team to receive more than one vote. The Raiders and
Chiefs each received one tally. Susskind believes that the “Chiefs
will have a healthy Priest Holmes and a just-good-enough defense” to
come out of the AFC. |
|
2 |
Who will win the NFC Championship? |
Carolina – The now-healthy Panthers
(seven votes) were somewhat of a surprise pick to represent the NFC
in the Super Bowl, especially over the perennial contending Eagles
(four). I, for one, chose Carolina because the defense has the
potential to be stifling, John Fox is one of the best coaching minds
in the game, and QB Jake Delhomme continues to improve. Susskind
likes the big-play potential of RB Deshaun Foster and WR Steve
Smith. Minnesota (three) was a somewhat popular choice even with the
loss of WR Randy Moss. The other two votes went to the New York
Giants (one) and Atlanta Falcons (one). Schneider believes the
Falcons have a good shot “if Vick stays healthy and the D lives up
to expectations.” |
|
3 |
Who will win the Super Bowl? |
Indianapolis – In the end, it was the
Colts (six votes) over the Panthers (three) in Super Bowl XL. Green
thinks that QB Peyton Manning will “add a Super Bowl MVP to his
trophy case.” Murphy, meanwhile, likes the improved Colts’ defense
“led by Dwight Freeney, to get through the playoffs and to the
Lombardi trophy.” I picked the Panthers to win it all because, in
big games, even in domes, defense wins championships. The Patriots
(two) and Eagles (two) were not picked by many to reach the Super
Bowl again this season, though Harris believes “if TO plays all
year, (the Eagles) should finally win the big one.” Oakland (one),
Minnesota (one) and the NY Giants (one) took in the remaining votes. |
|
4 |
What team do you expect to surprise the
most (in a positive way)? |
Cincinnati – In a very close
vote, the Bengals (three
votes) edged Oakland,
Washington, Houston, the New York Giants, and Arizona (two apiece).
Susskind thinks the Bengals are ready to “step up and become a
contender” this season. I like Houston to open some eyes, especially
with four winnable games against division rivals Jacksonville and
Tennessee. Haines thinks the Cardinals will make a run at the
playoffs thanks to their weak division and offseason improvements.
Schneider thinks Oakland will be above .500 and win a lot of
high-scoring games. He also believes, as many do, that “they will be
fun to watch.” One of the polled fans thinks that QB Eli Manning
will improve enough to shock the football world and lead the Giants
to the Super Bowl. New Orleans and Detroit each received one vote,
with Harris thinking that the Lions’ defense is “very underrated.”
|
|
5 |
What team do you think will be the most
disappointing? |
Pittsburgh and Oakland (tie) – The team
everyone picked to be the biggest positive surprise one year ago
received the most votes to be the biggest disappointment this
season. The Steelers (three votes) tied the Raiders (three votes)
for the team most likely to fall short of expectations this season.
Susskind thinks that the Steelers will have trouble with “age,
injury, and attrition,” while Harris is quick to point out that “(WR
Randy) Moss doesn’t play on defense” for the Raiders. Baltimore
(two) and San Diego (two) finished a close second here. Cannon was
in agreement with one of our polled fans in thinking the Ravens will
not be nearly as good as some predict. Haines and Schneider think
the Chargers will fall hard due to the AFC West being a very strong
division. Others receiving votes: New England (one), Buffalo (one),
Jacksonville (one), NY Jets (one), New Orleans (one), and
Philadelphia (one). |
|
6 |
Which team will have the most potent
offense (yards and points)? |
Indianapolis – The Colts’ 2004-2005
record-breaking offensive performance has everyone jumping on the
bandwagon this season. Manning and friends received 11 votes,
crushing the closest competition, Oakland (three). Green thinks the
Colts “may be even better this year.” I am just overwhelmed by their
slew of weapons. Harris simply comments: “Who else?” when asked this
question. Murphy was one of the Raider backers. He made his decision
because, “Collins has a strong arm. Lamont Jordan is a fantastic
running back for Norv Turner’s system. The offensive line is big,
and with Moss, Porter, and Curry on the outside…yeah, that’s pretty
good. Also, the Raiders’ defense is so deplorable, this offense will
be attacking all season long.” The other two votes were given to St.
Louis (by Cannon) and Minnesota (by Haines). Haines thinks, “(QB
Daunte) Culpepper will prove that Randy Moss was not the key to this
team’s offense.” |
|
7 |
Which team will have the most dominating
defense (yards, points, sacks, takeaways)? |
Baltimore – Last season, the Ravens’
defense was the only landslide winner in this survey. This season, a
year in which they added CB Samari Rolle and will play the vaunted
46 defense, they are still the top choice…only not by a landslide.
The Ravens received 12 out of the 16 votes. Murphy calls them
“suffocating.” Kellogg likes them to be led by his pick for
defensive MVP, safety Will Demps. I think the duo of Rolle and
McAllister makes them impossible to throw on. Haines calls the
Ravens “loaded at every position.” Buffalo (two) was the only other
team to get more than one vote, while Carolina and New England
received one apiece. |
|
8 |
Who will be the offensive MVP? |
Peyton Manning – Coming off his
49-touchdown season, Manning (eight votes) was the consensus pick
for offensive MVP. Few reasons were given for this selection, as the
experts and fans apparently are choosing to let the numbers speak
for themselves. RBs LaDainian Tomlinson (two) and Shaun Alexander
(two) tied for a distant second. Murphy thinks Tomlinson’s goal of
2,000 yards is within reach, while Haines calls Alexander a
“workhorse back.” Others receiving votes: Priest Holmes (one), Randy
Moss (one), Daunte Culpepper (one), and Donovan McNabb (one). |
|
9 |
Who will be the defensive MVP? |
Julius Peppers – When I cast my vote for
Peppers, I thought I would be in a very small minority. I was
clearly wrong. Peppers received seven votes for defensive MVP.
Murphy calls Peppers “a freak, athletically.” Pitzer, Harris,
Susskind, and two of the three polled fans agree. Ravens’ LB Ray
Lewis (three) was next in the voting. Lawrence likes him to lead
Baltimore’s solid defense. Last year’s defensive MVP, Ravens’ S Ed
Reed (two votes), described by Haines as a “playmaker,” came next.
Kellogg’s vote went to Demps (one). Smith selected rookie DeMarcus
Ware (one) as the MVP, but not Rookie of the Year. Davis likes Jets’
LB, and last season’s Rookie of the Year, Jonathan Vilma (one), and
Green thinks Colts’ DE Dwight Freeney (one) will get “a ton of
sacks.” |
|
10 |
Who will be the Rookie of the Year?
|
Carnell “Cadillac”Williams – In yet
another close vote, Williams (five votes) edged fellow RBs Ronnie
Brown (three) and J.J. Arrington (three). Two of our polled fans
think Williams will be a Top 10 back by the end of the season.
Smith, Pitzer and Schneider also like the way “Cadillac” moves. I
voted for Brown because he will be relied upon heavily in Miami.
Murphy chose Brown, as well, thinking Brown “will be the best player
from the 2005 NFL Draft” due to his ability to “run in and out…catch
and block.” Davis, Haines, and Green jumped on Arrington, with Green
commenting that “Arizona’s offense may surprise some people this
year.” The only other player to garner more than one vote was Kansas
City LB Derrick Johnson (two), whom Harris calls “the next Derrick
Thomas.” Others receiving votes: DeMarcus Ware (one), Antrel Rolle
(one), and Carlos Rogers (one). |
|
11 |
Which player will be the biggest surprise
(in a positive way)? |
Carson Palmer – Palmer (five votes) was
the favorite to have a breakout season. Green believes Palmer is
“poised to break out at the helm of a potentially explosive
offense.” Murphy sees Palmer as “a Top Five or Six NFL quarterback
by the end of the season.” Giants’ QB Eli Manning (three) was the
only other player to receive more than one vote. Haines thinks
Carolina WR Steve Smith (one) will “help lead his team to the NFC
title.” I felt the same way about Jets’ QB Chad Pennington (one).
Davis likes Houston CB Dunta Robinson (one) to lead an improved
Texans’ defense into playoff contention. Harris chose Pittsburgh’s
default starting RB Willie Parker (one) to “come out of nowhere to
lead the Steelers in rushing.” Others receiving votes: Charles
Rogers (one), Kerry Collins (one), Julius Jones (one), and Rod
Gardner (one). |
|
12 |
Which player will be the biggest
disappointment? |
Ricky Williams,
Mushin Muhammad, Drew Brees (tie) –
This vote was spread out among 13 players.
Williams, Muhammad, and Brees (two votes each) were the only players
to receive more than one vote. Lawrence and one of our fans think
Williams will continue to disappoint his team and his fans. Murphy
thinks Muhammad “has no incentive or talent around him to succeed.”
Green concurs, saying about Muhammad: “No QB, no chance.” Both
Schneider and I believe that Brees has little to no chance to
duplicate last season’s performance. Harris chose Oakland QB Kerry
Collins (one), saying: “You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t
make him drink.” That is a very apropos statement considering
Collins’ checkered past with alcohol. Haines split his vote between
Green Bay QB Brett Favre (0.5 votes) and Oakland WR Randy Moss (0.5
votes). Of Favre, Haines says that Brett “declines quickly” and that
“age catches up.” For Moss, he claims “Kerry (Collins) is no (Daunte)
Culpepper.” Others receiving votes: Chad Pennington (one), Ben
Roethlisberger (one), Priest Holmes (one), LaDainian Tomlinson
(one), Duce Staley (one), Terrell Owens (one), Donovan McNabb (one),
and Fred Taylor (one). |
|
| |
| |
|